PoE Sanity

PoE 2 0.5 Crafting Guide | How to Profit From BRICKED Items & Calculate Expected Value [EV]

By BeltonWatch videoDuration: PT45M31S

Summary

  • Understand and calculate Expected Value (EV) to determine the profitability of any craft or corruption.
  • Recognize the value in “bricked” or non-target outcomes to hedge against variance.
  • Focus on large sample sizes to move closer to the mathematical mean and ensure consistent profit.
  • Utilize the “three-to-one” vendor recipe and mid-tier markets to offload items that miss S-tier modifiers.
  • Avoid “bricking” high-potential items by adding mediocre mods; sell them as clean bases to wealthier crafters instead.

Conceptual Framework: Expected Value (EV) and Average Cost

Profitability in crafting, corrupting, or identifying items is driven by three variables:

  1. Probability: The fixed mathematical chance of hitting a specific outcome (e.g., 1-in-28).
  2. Material Cost: The current market price of the inputs required for one attempt.
  3. Sale Price: The market value of the desired outcome.

To find the average cost of an outcome, multiply the number of attempts required (on average) by the cost per attempt. The Expected Value (EV) is the difference between the average sale price of all possible outcomes and the cost of the identification or craft.

Approaching crafting with intentionality involves seeing where the vectors for profit are and having secondary or tertiary ways to hedge or profit when the “S-tier” target is missed.

The Fallacy of Zero-Value Failures

A common mistake in cost accounting is assigning zero value to items that do not hit the primary target.

  • The “S-Tier” Target: Most players only chase the absolute best outcome (e.g., +1 to All Skills on a Choir of the Storms).
  • Profiting from “Bricks”: In many high-variance crafts, the items produced between the successful hits still hold significant value.
  • Risk Aversion Premium: Most players are risk-averse and will pay a premium for a guaranteed finished item. By acting as the “risk-taker” and performing batch crafts, you capture the margin that others pay to avoid RNG.

Case Study: Identifying Atziri’s Splendour

This strategy is demonstrated by identifying 155 Atziri’s Splendours.

Identification Logistics:

  • Possible Defense Types (7): ES, Armor, Evasion, ES/Armor, ES/Evasion, Armor/Evasion, and ES/Armor/Evasion.
  • Possible Soul Cores (4): Helmet, Shield, Boots, and Gloves.
  • Total Outcomes: 28 (7 types x 4 cores).

The Math (Sample Session):

  • Average identification price: 685 Divines.
  • Cost per unidentified chest: 600 Divines.
  • Expected Value (EV) per click: 85 Divines.
  • Total Investment: 93,000 Divines for 155 chests.
  • Anticipated Profit: ~13,114 Divines.

Live Identification and Variance

During identification, items may lean heavily toward low-value outcomes initially (e.g., a streak of pure Evasion chests). This is the “variance” phase. Over a large enough sample (150+ items), the results will gravitate toward the mean.

Notable Outcomes from the Session:

  • Jackpot: Energy Shield (ES) Helmets are the highest value (approx. 5,000 Divines).
  • Statistical Anomalies: One pair of ES Boots rolled “perfect” (320% defense, 20% All Elemental Resistances). This is roughly a 1-in-7,777 outcome.
  • Totals:
    • ES Helmets: 9
    • ES Boots: 6
    • ES Gloves: 7
    • ES Shield: 3

Post-Identification Strategy and Results

Once identified, do not simply discard the lower-value items.

  1. Three-to-One Recipe: Since these items are not corrupted, any three “bad” Splendours can be traded to a vendor for a new, clean, unidentified version to try again.
  2. Market Tiers: Even “mid” tiers (like Armor/ES or Evasion/ES) sell to players on a budget.
  3. Final Tally:
    • Total Value Generated: 115,080 Divines.
    • Total Profit: 22,080 Divines (~2.32 Mirrors).
    • Profit Margin: ~24%.

Advice for High-Level Crafting

  • Don’t Craft for the “Average” Player: A common error is hitting three Tier 1 (T1) modifiers and then filling the remaining slots with Tier 3 or “desecrated” mods. This ruins the item’s value for high-end buyers.
  • Sell Bases Early: If you have an item with 3 T1 modifiers but cannot afford to finish it perfectly (using Whitlings, etc.), sell it as-is. Wealthy crafters will pay a premium for a clean 3 T1 base that they can finish themselves.
  • Data over Emotion: Use spreadsheets to track outcomes. If the math says a craft is positive EV, continue through the “dry streaks” until the variance levels out.

Key References